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Zhu Jian, information nitrogen fertilizer analyst Han Jian said that in the first half of 2010, the spring drought in South China and the floods in summer severely restricted the demand for the domestic fertilizer market, resulting in the first half of the decline in fertilizer prices. If the ex-factory price of urea is between RMB 1550 and RMB 1600 (t price, the same below), the price will drop to RMB 1400 in some regions. Raw material prices have been rising all the way, and companies are under pressure on both sides. Most of the companies are losing money. According to statistics, in the first half of the nitrogen fertilizer industry, the loss reached 80%.
From July to November 2010, all localities completed the “Eleventh Five-Year†energy-saving emission reduction task in order to surprise and a large number of nitrogen fertilizer companies were forced to stop production and reduce production, resulting in a significant decline in nitrogen fertilizer production. Changes in supply and demand, coupled with the 7% off-season export tariffs that were implemented most of the second half of the year, have resulted in a significant increase in exports, resulting in tight domestic supplies of urea and soaring prices. The market price reached a maximum of 2,100 yuan in early November.
Han Jian said that the decline in output and strong exports have caused domestic urea to be in short supply. In the first 11 months of 2010, the output of nitrogen fertilizer was 42.196 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. In the first 11 months, domestic sales (output minus exports) fell 13.6% year-on-year.
At the end of November 2010, government-led emission reduction activities basically ended. At the same time, the country has increased the export tariff on fertilizers from 7% to 110%, and the door for fertilizer exports has been basically closed. The domestic fertilizer market sales season has also ended, companies can produce and sell at full capacity, but they have no market. As a result, the price increase was suppressed and the trend of decline soon followed. In early December, market prices in some regions have fallen below 1,900 yuan. According to industry insiders, as the prices of raw materials such as natural gas and coal continue to rise, the price will fall back to the level of the first half of 2010, which is extremely unlikely.
"The reason why the market is complicated and confusing is to say that the relationship between supply and demand is constantly changing. However, the root cause of the problem is excess capacity." Han Hongmei, senior engineer of the Inorganic Chemicals Division of the Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning, pointed out that despite overcapacity in the industry, However, many companies still have projects under construction and planning and construction. If implemented as scheduled, by 2012, the new nitrogen fertilizer production capacity will reach 7 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 11.07 million tons of urea. The total urea production capacity will be over 70 million tons, which greatly exceeds the current output of nearly 50 million tons. In other words, in the next few years, the situation that nitrogen supply exceeds demand will not change.
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2) especially suitable for hard metal like stainless steel chips, grade 7 and grade 12 aluminum scrap, long copper chips, etc.
3) make storage area clean and green.
4) much lower than vertical one, suit the workshop with low height.
5) high output.
Fertilizer industry goes through one year in change
The industry's evaluation of the fertilizer market in 2010 is: complex and changeable.